PE/VC - Cambridge Associates https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/en-eu/topics/pe-vc-en-eu/feed/ A Global Investment Firm Wed, 14 Aug 2024 16:21:39 +0000 en-EU hourly 1 https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/cropped-CA_logo_square-only-32x32.jpg PE/VC - Cambridge Associates https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/en-eu/topics/pe-vc-en-eu/feed/ 32 32 US PE/VC Benchmark Commentary: Calendar Year 2023 https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/en-eu/insight/us-pe-vc-benchmark-commentary-calendar-year-2023/ Tue, 13 Aug 2024 17:19:59 +0000 https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/?p=34976 In 2023, US private equity (PE) performed better than venture capital (VC), but returns for both asset classes trailed those of the public markets, which rebounded strongly from a tough 2022. For calendar year 2023, the Cambridge Associates LLC US Private Equity Index® returned 9.3% and the Cambridge Associates LLC US Venture Capital Index® returned […]

The post US PE/VC Benchmark Commentary: Calendar Year 2023 appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>

In 2023, US private equity (PE) performed better than venture capital (VC), but returns for both asset classes trailed those of the public markets, which rebounded strongly from a tough 2022. For calendar year 2023, the Cambridge Associates LLC US Private Equity Index® returned 9.3% and the Cambridge Associates LLC US Venture Capital Index® returned -3.4%. Information technology (IT) continued to be the largest sector in PE and VC and produced divergent results across buyouts and growth equity (the components of the PE benchmark) and venture capital. Tech buyouts, which are generally mature companies, performed the best and growth equity–backed technology companies earned better returns than those in the VC index. Figure 1 depicts performance for the private asset classes compared to the public markets. 1

Calendar Year 2023 Highlights

  • Despite posting lower short-term results (six months and one year) than the public markets as of December 31, 2023, the US PE index outperformed relevant public indexes in every period longer than three years. The US VC benchmark’s performance relative to public indexes has been more mixed, in part due to its lackluster returns since 2021.
  • After spiking during the COVID-19 pandemic era, exposures to public companies in the PE/VC indexes have fallen. At the end of 2023, public companies accounted for a modestly higher percentage of the market value of the VC index’s market value than of the PE one (roughly 8% and 7%, respectively). At the same time, non-US companies represented about 20% of PE and 13% of VC.

US Private Equity Performance Insights

In 2023, a macro environment marked by stubbornly high interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and a concentrated but strong rebound in the public market proved to be challenging for PE fundraising, investment activity, and exits. PE portfolio company valuations, which tend to move directionally with the those of public companies, neither fell dramatically in 2022 nor rose massively in 2023 and in both years, were more resilient in buyouts than in growth equity. Limited partner (LP) cash flows were down again in 2023 as market uncertainty and a large bid-ask spread constrained buying and selling, leading to fewer capital calls and distributions. As of the end of 2023, four vintages (2018–21) accounted for nearly 60% of the PE index’s value, which is not surprising, given the abundant fundraising in that era. All four vintages earned at least 9.6% for the year.

According to Dealogic, in 2023, seven US PE-backed companies went public, and they were valued at $19 billion; the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) was up from 2022 (two), but the overall value was down about $3 billion. Among the seven, two were IT-related businesses, two were consumer companies, and there was one each in energy, financials, and healthcare. The number of PE-backed merger & acquisition (M&A) transactions trailed the total completed in 2022 (1,060 versus 1,150), marking the second consecutive drop in M&A exits. Only 17% (or 180 deals) had publicly disclosed valuations and based on the data available, the average transaction size among those deals was $1.2 billion, about $90 million less than the average in 2022. During 2023, there was not much variation in the number of deals by quarter, but the total and average deal values were by far the lowest in the fourth quarter.

Vintage Years

As of December 2023, eight vintage years (2015–22) were meaningfully sized—representing at least 5% of the benchmark’s value—and, combined, accounted for 86% of the index’s value. Calendar-year returns among the key vintages ranged from 1.8% for 2015 to 13.5% for 2022; the 2015 and 2022 vintages represented 6% of the index’s value at year’s end, placing them at the small end of the largest vintages. The two largest vintages, 2019 and 2021, returned 9.6% and 11.7%, respectively (Figure 2).

Part of the divergence of returns across the vintage years was related to the performance of the fund strategies within the PE universe—buyouts and growth equity—which do not share the same return profiles. In 2023, for instance, the benchmark for US buyout funds earned 10.4%, while the US growth equity index posted a 6.1% return. Similarly, for all large vintages except for 2015 and 2016, buyouts meaningfully outperformed growth equity. Additionally, the younger vintages (2018–22) generally earned higher returns than more mature ones (2015–17).

Write-ups in industrials and to a lesser extent IT boosted returns for the top-performing vintage (2022), while in the lowest-returning vintage (2015), write-ups in consumer discretionary and IT were somewhat offset by write-downs in financials and other sectors. Values across the key sectors were written up in the largest vintages, 2019 and 2021, with financials and healthcare earning the highest returns in the 2019 cohort, and financials, healthcare, and IT leading the way for the 2021 funds.

LP Cash Flows

In 2023, limited partner (LP) cash flows were on par with activity last seen in 2020, with $137 billion in capital calls and $125 billion in distributions. Both totals represented declines from 2022, a 27% drop in calls and a 12% drop in distributions. Following ten years (2012–21) of distributions equaling or surpassing contributions, over the past two years, calls outpaced distributions by a ratio of 1.2x. However, during the second half of 2023, fund managers returned more capital to LPs than they called, perhaps a hopeful sign for distributions but also an indication of a less active investment environment.

Five vintage years (2019–23) represented 89% ($123 billion) of the capital calls, with each drawing down at least $10 billion during the year; the 2021 and 2022 vintages were the most active, combining to call almost $85 billion. Seven vintages (2013–19) accounted for most of the distributions, and within that group, the 2016–17 and 2019 vintages led the way as each returned about $17 billion to LPs.

Sectors

Figure 3 shows the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) sector breakdown by market value of the PE index and a public market counterpart, the Russell 2000® Index. The comparison provides context when comparing the performance of the two indexes. The PE index continued to have a significant overweight to IT and meaningful underweights to financials, energy, and real estate (the latter two are reflected in the “other” category).

As of December 2023, there were six key sectors by size and IT was by far the largest (36% of the index’s market value). Three of the six large sectors earned double-digit returns for the year (IT, financials, and industrials) and among all six, calendar year returns were best for IT and lowest for communication services.

US Venture Capital Performance Insights

For the second consecutive year, the CA US venture capital index produced a negative return in 2023 (-3.4%), as the industry continued its reset with respect to valuations, fundraising, investing, and exits. Performance for IT companies was a significant drag on the benchmark’s return, a stark difference from the public market indexes, whose rebounds in 2023 were buoyed by a small number of tech-related companies.

According to the National Venture Capital Association and Pitchbook, by number, US VC managers completed about 18% fewer deals in 2023 than they did in 2022 (14,491 from 17,709), a smaller decline than when measured by value ($166 billion from $242 billion in 2022). Exits have declined more dramatically, especially by number. Compared to 2022, total reported exits (1,073) fell 24% in 2023, driven by a slower environment for M&A and buyouts, rather than in IPOs, which were marginally higher in 2023 than in 2022. Values for M&A exits declined commensurately with the drop by number and despite the small increase by number, the value of IPO exits was also lower in 2023 than in 2022. Notably, for the second consecutive year, the value of exits via M&A was higher than those of public listings in 2023, while the number of M&A exits (755) was the lowest of any of the last ten years.

Vintage Years

As of December 2023, nine vintage years (2014–22) were meaningfully sized and combined, accounted for 81% of the index’s value. With one exception (13.9% for vintage year 2022), returns across the key vintages were largely negative, ranging from -9.6% (2014) to -0.8% (2021) (Figure 4). With a 0.5% return in the fourth quarter, the VC index ended its seven-quarter streak of negative returns, its longest since the tech wreck that started at the end of 2000.

For the lone key vintage (2022) that earned a positive return during the year, all sectors except for IT performed well. In the lowest-performing vintage, 2014, all key sectors suffered write-downs. For the 2021 cohort, financials was the biggest drag on returns.

LP Cash Flows

Amid the challenging investment and exit environment, US VC LP cash flows declined in 2023, with capital calls ($30.3 billion) mirroring those of 2020 and distributions ($19.4 billion) hitting the lowest total since 2016. After ten straight calendar years (2012–21) of distributions outpacing calls, the reverse was true the past two years, with calls outnumbering distributions by a ratio of 1.3x.

Four vintages (2020–23) accounted for 89% (roughly $27 billion) of the total capital called during the year. While each vintage called more than $3.4 billion, the 2021 and 2022 groups were the most active, combining for almost $19 billion in total. Distributions were more widespread than contributions, with seven vintages (2012–18) returning at least $1.2 billion to LPs for a combined $13 billion. The 2012 vintage distributed more than $3 billion, the most of any group.

Sectors

Figure 5 shows the GICS® sector breakdown of the VC index by market value and a public market counterpart, the Nasdaq Composite Index. The breakdown provides context when comparing the performance of the two indexes. The chart highlights the VC index’s meaningfully higher exposures to healthcare, financials, and industrials. The indexes are both heavily tilted toward IT, and Nasdaq weightings in communication services and consumer discretionary have remained much higher than those of the VC index.

Collectively, the five meaningfully sized sectors made up 91% of the VC index. Communication services posted the lowest return and industrials the best.

View more investment insights.

 


Caryn Slotsky, Managing Director
Wyatt Yasinski, Associate Investment Director
Drew Carneal, Associate Investment Director

 

 

Figure Notes

US Private Equity and Venture Capital Index Returns
Private indexes are pooled horizon internal rates of return, net of fees, expenses, and carried interest. Returns are annualized, with the exception of returns less than one year, which are cumulative. Because the US private equity and venture capital indexes are capitalization weighted, the largest vintage years mainly drive the indexes’ performance.
Public index returns are shown as both time-weighted returns (average annual compound returns) and dollar-weighted returns (mPME). The CA Modified Public Market Equivalent replicates private investment performance under public market conditions. The public index’s shares are purchased and sold according to the private fund cash flow schedule, with distributions calculated in the same proportion as the private fund, and mPME net asset value is a function of mPME cash flows and public index returns.

Vintage Year Returns
Vintage year fund-level returns are net of fees, expenses, and carried interest.

Sector Returns
Industry-specific gross company-level returns are before fees, expenses, and carried interest.

GICS® Sector Comparisons
The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. and S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC and is licensed for use by Cambridge Associates LLC.

About the Cambridge Associates LLC Indexe
s
Cambridge Associates derives its US private equity benchmark from the financial information contained in its proprietary database of private equity funds. As of December 31, 2023, the database included 1,572 US buyout and growth equity funds formed from 1986 to 2023, with a value of $1.5 trillion. Ten years ago, as of December 31, 2013, the index included 900 funds whose value was $521 billion.

Cambridge Associates derives its US venture capital benchmark from the financial information contained in its proprietary database of venture capital funds. As of December 31, 2023, the database comprised 2,483 US venture capital funds formed from 1981 to 2023, with a value of $470 billion. Ten years ago, as of December 31, 2013, the index included 1,468 funds whose value was $154 billion.

The pooled returns represent the net end-to-end rates of return calculated on the aggregate of all cash flows and market values as reported to Cambridge Associates by the funds’ general partners in their quarterly and annual audited financial reports. These returns are net of management fees, expenses, and performance fees that take the form of a carried interest.

About the Public Indexes
The Nasdaq Composite Index is a broad-based index that measures all securities (more than 3,000) listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The Nasdaq Composite is calculated under a market capitalization–weighted methodology.
The Russell 2000® Index includes the smallest 2,000 companies of the Russell 3000® Index (which is composed of the largest 3,000 companies by market capitalization).


The Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Stock Price Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks intended to be a representative sample of leading companies in leading industries within the US economy. Stocks in the index are chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation.

 

Footnotes

  1. Cambridge Associates’ mPME calculation is a private-to-public comparison that seeks to replicate private investment performance under public market conditions.

The post US PE/VC Benchmark Commentary: Calendar Year 2023 appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
Unlocking New Opportunities for Family Investors Through Private Funds https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/en-eu/insight/unlocking-new-opportunities-for-family-investors-through-private-funds/ Mon, 15 Jul 2024 14:46:46 +0000 https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/?p=33946 Direct investments are often the first point of entry into private investments (PI) for wealthy families. In building out their direct portfolios, many families invest exclusively in a particular region, industry, or business sector. Similarly, entrepreneurial families with highly cash-generative operating businesses—or those who have recently sold a business—may have portfolios that are narrower in […]

The post Unlocking New Opportunities for Family Investors Through Private Funds appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
Direct investments are often the first point of entry into private investments (PI) for wealthy families. In building out their direct portfolios, many families invest exclusively in a particular region, industry, or business sector. Similarly, entrepreneurial families with highly cash-generative operating businesses—or those who have recently sold a business—may have portfolios that are narrower in scope. But for investors whose goal is to maximize long-term returns, direct investments should always be considered relative to other growth opportunities available in the market. Enterprising families seeking more comprehensive private allocations can consider building a PI fund program to serve as a pathway to a multitude of new opportunities. Understanding the potential advantages and challenges of PI fund programs can help family investors consider whether an expansion of their private allocations is right for them.

The Advantages of Private Fund Investments

Benchmarked Return Potential

Private markets can add considerable value to family portfolios. Yet, when it comes to evaluating the performance potential of direct versus fund investments, the landscape differs significantly. The figure shows how private investment funds—as measured by Cambridge Associates (CA) benchmarks—have outperformed their public market equivalents over the past 20 years. It is worth noting that these benchmark returns are net of all fees, demonstrating the strong return potential of PI funds despite higher associated costs.

Although CA uses proprietary asset class benchmarks for private investments, standardized public benchmarks for direct investments do not exist. The bespoke nature and complexity of directs often requires investors and their investment managers to instead rely more heavily on their own qualitative assessments and judgments related to the intrinsic value of the asset.

Greater Geographic Reach

Families who focus only on a local market or region may miss a large part of the investment universe. Investors relying solely on a domestic portfolio risk becoming too concentrated while also forgoing opportunities to invest in leading companies domiciled in foreign markets. The broader the investment options, the higher the bar is raised. What’s more, investment talent is everywhere. We believe PI fund managers that specialize in specific markets, rather than having a global focus, are often better positioned to outperform. For example, a family with an operating business in Europe may seek to further globalize their investment exposure by seeking US-focused fund opportunities. Often, a fund-specific strategy is designed to complement a direct portfolio, augmenting the “in-house” resources of the family office.

Expanded Sector Allocations

Similarly, it can be difficult to source direct investment opportunities outside of the specific sector where a family has built their wealth and networks. And if deals are sourced, it can be challenging to develop the know-how required to be an effective investment partner. Expertise in one sector may not translate to expertise in another. For example, it would be difficult for a family with a background in software to leverage their knowledge and capabilities in an industrial strategy requiring large capital investment and manufacturing knowledge—or vice versa. Yet, both sectors should be considered as part of a family’s diverse investment opportunity set. PI fund investments can serve as a conduit to expand a family’s investable universe beyond sectors familiar to them. Relationships with general partners (GPs) can also provide access to professionals and CEOs outside of the family’s typical investment network, which can have a strategic benefit to other businesses in the portfolio.

Opportunities Across Various Stages

Unlike directs, PI funds offer families the opportunity to balance allocations across the PI spectrum to help manage asset class–specific risk. For example, the risks and returns of an early-stage venture opportunity are different from those in a mega-cap buyout strategy. While it is possible to invest across different asset classes and life cycle stages with direct investments, it typically requires managing a larger number of individual investments compared to fund investing. PI funds invest in companies at various stages of their life cycle, frequently specializing within a certain range of business development. Fund investing is also more capital efficient for diversification, especially for families with a smaller PI budget. Having multiple fund investments that target different deal stages can help reduce the impact of any one investment performing poorly. It also has the potential to provide differentiated sources of return and cash flow profiles.

Opportunities Across Different Deal Sizes and Co-investments

Often, large- or mega-cap direct deals—which can range from $10 billion to more than $200 billion—can be challenging for families to secure with participation dependent on the size and scale of the investors involved. Most direct deals tend to be focused on small- and mid-market segments. Through PI funds, families who may otherwise be left out can allocate to a diverse range of market caps, including small-, mid-, and large-cap investments. This can help improve the stability of portfolio returns and enhance their protection against downside risk. Additionally, PI funds offer professional management, diversification, and access to exclusive investment opportunities that might not be available through direct deals alone.

Co-investments provided by a GP to its limited partners (LPs) offer another pathway for families to engage with investment opportunities that might otherwise be inaccessible. They allow families to invest alongside a fund in specific deals, often with no or substantially reduced management fees or carried interest compared to what would typically apply to fund investments. This may enhance the potential returns on those investments. For families of wealth, co-investments represent a compelling way to gain more direct exposure to high-quality opportunities, while leveraging the expertise and due diligence capabilities of the fund managers. This approach can not only broaden the investment horizon but further align the interests of the investor and the fund manager, helping foster partnerships that could lead to other strategic investment opportunities. Investors should keep in mind that the most attractive co-investment opportunities offered by PI fund managers often parallel a manager’s specific experience and expertise, providing direct exposure in areas outside a family’s traditional skill set and business networks.

Different Generational Factors

Many direct investors got their start as entrepreneurs and grew into experienced business owners. They often leverage the skills honed from growing and running their personal businesses into being active, effective direct investors. However, this can make business and wealth succession planning challenging if the inheriting generation of family members does not share the same interest or abilities as the controlling generation. By contrast, fund investments are more institutional and transactional by nature, and do not require family members to preside over them in the same way. They can be easier to leave to beneficiaries and are suited to long-term investors focused on building a family legacy. PI fund opportunities can also provide a means for working with innovative investment ideas—from artificial intelligence to life sciences and music royalties. This can be a way of further engaging families with members across multiple generations and areas of interest.

Key Operational Differences

Direct investing and private fund investing can both be complex—but in different ways. It can be easy for families to underestimate the work involved with holding a directs portfolio. Direct investments sometimes require investors to sit on a board, provide operating advice, or may require extensive “in-house” capabilities to be dedicated to making an operation successful. Generally speaking, the more challenging the market environment and/or business conditions, the greater the time commitment. While fund investments require investment operational support, such as negotiating and executing LP agreements and managing capital calls and distributions, the operational burden they put on investors tends to be more consistent and—more often than not—significantly lighter.

Potential Challenges of Private Fund Investments

Skill Set Requirements

Whereas direct investments are typically more “hands-on,” a different kind of expertise is usually required to be successful in PI funds. The development and execution of fund strategies demands strategic insight, comprehensive due diligence on fund managers and underlying assets, careful risk management through diversification and hedging, and a deep understanding of fund structures and performance metrics. In many cases, industry knowledge and negotiation experience can give families an edge. To remain aligned with their broader investment goals, families should look for experienced investment managers in building a private fund portfolio.

Important Risk Variables

Blind pool risk is a principal factor pertaining to private funds. Families considering fund investments should remember that they do not have control over how the fund allocates capital. As a result, it is important to recognize that fund investments also often come with a high degree of illiquidity risk.

Fee Considerations

Private fund investors pay higher fees relative to other strategies. Historical returns should be considered when determining how they fit into a family’s broader portfolio, keeping in mind that top-tier PI fund performance may result in additional fees over the long term.

The Family Advantage

In our experience, families of wealth are often viewed as preferred strategic LPs by fund managers. While many PI fund managers can be hard to access, families have certain competitive advantages such as bringing a variety of operating backgrounds that are viewed favorably by fund managers. In addition, some managers appreciate that families can have less complex or formalized governance structures relative to institutional investors, helping with faster decision making through more immediate access to the decision maker(s). Many GPs also appreciate and identify with families who have an entrepreneurial background, allowing them to speak the same language of business ownership and development.

New Horizons

Incorporating a private fund portfolio alongside direct investments presents family investors with a strategic opportunity to augment their private market allocations, enhancing the potential for higher returns and greater diversification. However, skilled implementation is key, given the significant variance in returns within the private funds industry, coupled with its inherent illiquidity and other associated risks. To navigate these complexities, families should align their PI funds approach with their long-term financial objectives and desired level of risk tolerance. This alignment, combined with rigorous due diligence in manager selection, can greatly influence the outcome of their investments. Furthermore, disciplined management of the PI fund program—emphasizing vintage year diversification, maintaining adequate liquidity, and robust risk management—is crucial. By adhering to these principles, families can help create a resilient and high-performing PI fund portfolio that complements their direct holdings and successfully broadens their investment horizons.

Learn more about our Private Client Practice.


Elisabeth Lind, Managing Director, Private Client Practice

Sheetal Zundel, Senior Director, Private Practice

 

Index Disclosures
Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index
The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based fixed income index used by bond traders and the managers of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a benchmark to measure their relative performance.

FTSE
EPRA Nareit Global Real Estate Index
The FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Real Estate Index Series is designed to represent general trends in listed real estate equities worldwide. Relevant activities are defined as the ownership, trading and development of income-producing real estate. The index series covers Global, Developed, and Emerging markets.


MSCI All Country World ex US Index

The MSCI ACWI ex US Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed markets countries (excluding the United States) and 24 emerging markets countries. With 2,159 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the United States.

MSCI World Select Natural Resources Index
The MSCI World Select Natural Resources Index is based on its parent index, the MSCI World IMI Index, which captures large-, mid-, and small-cap securities across 23 developed markets countries. The Index is designed to represent the performance of listed companies within the developed markets that own, process, or develop natural resources.


S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 is a market capitalization–weighted stock market index that tracks the stock performance of about 500 of some of the largest US public companies.

Footnotes

  1. Cambridge Associates’ mPME calculation is a private-to-public comparison that seeks to replicate private investment performance under public market conditions.

The post Unlocking New Opportunities for Family Investors Through Private Funds appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
Are Co-investments Attractive in Today’s Environment? https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/en-eu/insight/are-co-investments-attractive-in-todays-environment/ Wed, 26 Jun 2024 15:07:56 +0000 https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/?p=33156 Yes. We believe co-investments are an attractive opportunity in the current market for three primary reasons. First, the challenging fundraising environment has increased the incentive for general partners (GPs) to offer co-investments. Second, in a slow-paced environment, the ability to control capital deployment is increasingly valuable for limited partners (LPs). Third, a co-investment offered today […]

The post Are Co-investments Attractive in Today’s Environment? appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
Yes. We believe co-investments are an attractive opportunity in the current market for three primary reasons. First, the challenging fundraising environment has increased the incentive for general partners (GPs) to offer co-investments. Second, in a slow-paced environment, the ability to control capital deployment is increasingly valuable for limited partners (LPs). Third, a co-investment offered today should have current market dynamics factored into its underwriting, providing LPs with confidence that valuation, return expectations, and deal structure are based on prudent—even conservative—assumptions.

We believe success in co-investing is driven by access to robust and high-quality deal flow, and the current market climate creates additional incentives for GPs to expand their co-investment offerings. Private fundraising 2 activity slowed in 2022 and 2023, with respective declines of ~21% and ~35% from its peak in 2021. Though 2024 fundraising data show early signs of recovery, private markets have also underperformed public markets in the short term. The continuing distribution drought has led to skepticism among some LPs about the benefits of private investments, which in our experience has created a dynamic whereby GPs have to work very hard to secure fund commitments.

Co-investments play an increasingly important role in today’s fragile environment for two reasons. First, providing co-investment opportunities allows GPs to build goodwill and showcase their expertise to current and prospective LPs. Second, GPs can use co-investments to make their current fund capital go further. Due to the added incentives for GPs, LPs should benefit from improved access to high-quality opportunities, resulting in a more robust funnel. However, the co-investment evaluation process is critical; LPs must remain wary of adverse selection.

Co-investments offer LPs an important tool to control pacing and express market views. While this is true in any investment environment, it is particularly valuable when private market activity slows. In 2023, global private equity capital deployment was down ~46% from its peak in 2021, and in 2024 it is tracking to a ~43% decline from the historic high. 3 Despite this slowdown, GPs are increasingly incentivized to offer co-investments as discussed above. LPs can leverage this co-investment deal flow sourced across GP relationships to manage investment pacing. Further, compared to blind-pool funds, co-investments allow LPs to control specific exposures—and associated risks—in a portfolio. This enables LPs to focus on opportunities that are attractive in the current environment, which can help be identified through the due diligence process. Acknowledging that market volatility has led to allocation constraints for some investors, co-investing can still be a useful tool. Those with direct co-investment programs can adjust annual budgets to respond to market swings, while LPs using co-investment funds can continue to benefit from them by scaling back other commitments.

Co-investments are underwritten based on the current market environment, and today’s landscape should foster more conservative assumptions. Private equity firms synthesize macro and microeconomic data from public and private markets to inform their assumptions that drive financial forecasts and return projections. Typically, GPs provide detailed information about their underwriting to co-investors that can then validate these assumptions as part of their own due diligence process. These factors include, but are not limited to, company valuations, market growth rates, industry dynamics, and the availability and cost of debt. Recently, valuations have fallen from 2021 highs, growth forecasts are more conservative, and higher debt costs have focused sponsors on appropriate capital structures. The confluence of these factors should provide LPs with confidence that the current opportunity set is based on prudent underwriting assumptions. We believe deals struck in this vintage could produce attractive returns in the long run.

While co-investments offer high potential to add value, they are complex to source and execute. Co-investors should have a sound strategy and understanding of where they can be most competitive in finding the greatest value. We believe success is driven by a robust pipeline of opportunities and by having the appropriate resources to be able to transact quickly and efficiently. Today’s market has shifted the incentives of GPs to provide quality co-investment opportunities to LPs, for whom the ability to control capital deployment is increasingly valuable. In response to higher interest rates and a challenging fundraising market, underwriting standards have risen. Co-investors can evaluate these underwriting assumptions and build conviction in today’s opportunity set. Co-investing is a critical component of the private investment ecosystem and one that is particularly attractive today for those that are well positioned and prepared.

 


Rob Long, Senior Investment Director, Private Equity

Footnotes

  1. Cambridge Associates’ mPME calculation is a private-to-public comparison that seeks to replicate private investment performance under public market conditions.
  2. Private fundraising refers to buyout and growth equity funds.
  3. The 2024 fundraising activity is annualized based on data as of March 31, 2024.

The post Are Co-investments Attractive in Today’s Environment? appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
PE Buyout Markt https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/en-eu/podcasts/pe-buyout-markt/ Wed, 26 Jun 2024 10:55:05 +0000 https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/?post_type=podcasts&p=30738 Alex Koriath und sein Gast, Christoph Wedegaertner, tauchen ein in die Welt der PE Buy-Outs und beleuchten aktuelle Entwicklungnen und Perspektiven.  Ob Sie ein institutioneller Investor, ein erfahrener Finanzprofi oder einfach nur neugierig auf diese faszinierende Anlageklasse sind – diese Episode ist vollgepackt mit wertvollen Informationen und praktischen Ratschlägen. In dieser Folge erfahren Sie unter […]

The post PE Buyout Markt appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
Alex Koriath und sein Gast, Christoph Wedegaertner, tauchen ein in die Welt der PE Buy-Outs und beleuchten aktuelle Entwicklungnen und Perspektiven.  Ob Sie ein institutioneller Investor, ein erfahrener Finanzprofi oder einfach nur neugierig auf diese faszinierende Anlageklasse sind – diese Episode ist vollgepackt mit wertvollen Informationen und praktischen Ratschlägen.

In dieser Folge erfahren Sie unter anderem:

  • Auswahl der besten Fonds: Wie identifiziert man die besten Private Equity Fonds?
  • Attraktive Sektoren und Strategien: Welche Branchen und Investitionsstrategien sind derzeit besonders vielversprechend?
  • Due Diligence: Die entscheidende Rolle der Due Diligence im Entscheidungsprozess und wie man sie effektiv durchführt.

Apple Podcasts icon  Spotify icon

Amazon Music icon  RSS Feed

Footnotes

  1. Cambridge Associates’ mPME calculation is a private-to-public comparison that seeks to replicate private investment performance under public market conditions.
  2. Private fundraising refers to buyout and growth equity funds.
  3. The 2024 fundraising activity is annualized based on data as of March 31, 2024.

The post PE Buyout Markt appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
Warum überhaupt PI? https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/en-eu/podcasts/warum-uberhaupt-pi/ Wed, 26 Jun 2024 10:48:40 +0000 https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/?post_type=podcasts&p=30729 In dieser Folge erforschen Alex Koriath, Leiter des Münchener Büros von Cambridge Associates, und Managing Director Annabelle Wegner die Bedeutung von privaten Investitionen (PI). Sie erklären, warum PI einen integralen Bestandteil eines diversifizierten Anlageportfolios darstellen. Von der Suche nach höheren Renditen bis hin zur Möglichkeit, in innovative Unternehmen zu investieren, beleuchten die Experten die Gründe, […]

The post Warum überhaupt PI? appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
In dieser Folge erforschen Alex Koriath, Leiter des Münchener Büros von Cambridge Associates, und Managing Director Annabelle Wegner die Bedeutung von privaten Investitionen (PI). Sie erklären, warum PI einen integralen Bestandteil eines diversifizierten Anlageportfolios darstellen. Von der Suche nach höheren Renditen bis hin zur Möglichkeit, in innovative Unternehmen zu investieren, beleuchten die Experten die Gründe, warum Private Investments eine fundamentale Rolle für Anleger spielen. In dieser Folge erfahren Sie unter anderem:

  1. Welche Chancen für höhere Renditen und langfristige Wertschöpfung und welche Risiken Private Investments bieten.
  2. Wie Private Investments Zugang zu innovativen Unternehmen und Nischenmärkten ermöglichen.
  3. Warum Private Investments eine effektive Diversifizierung bieten und welche Auswirkungen diese auf das Risikoprofil ihres Portfolios haben.

Apple Podcasts icon  Spotify icon

Amazon Music icon  RSS Feed

Footnotes

  1. Cambridge Associates’ mPME calculation is a private-to-public comparison that seeks to replicate private investment performance under public market conditions.
  2. Private fundraising refers to buyout and growth equity funds.
  3. The 2024 fundraising activity is annualized based on data as of March 31, 2024.

The post Warum überhaupt PI? appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
Have Public Market Returns Permanently Eclipsed Private Market Returns? https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/en-eu/insight/have-public-market-returns-permanently-eclipsed-private-market-returns/ Tue, 16 Apr 2024 16:29:07 +0000 https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/?p=29506 No, while the public market’s outperformance may seem like a total eclipse, this one, like all eclipses, will be temporary. At present, short-term private equity returns do not compare favorably to those of public benchmarks. For the nine months ended September 30, 2023, global private equity and global venture capital underperformed the MSCI ACWI on […]

The post Have Public Market Returns Permanently Eclipsed Private Market Returns? appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
No, while the public market’s outperformance may seem like a total eclipse, this one, like all eclipses, will be temporary.

At present, short-term private equity returns do not compare favorably to those of public benchmarks. For the nine months ended September 30, 2023, global private equity and global venture capital underperformed the MSCI ACWI on a public market equivalent basis to the tune of 500 basis points (bps) and 1,400 bps, respectively. And, based on the strong public equity market performance through year-end 2023, as we wait for fourth quarter private investment numbers to finalize, we expect this pattern to continue.

Private investment managers incorporate public market comparables to varying degrees into their investment valuation methodologies, so it is not unusual to see private company valuations move somewhat in tandem with those of the public markets. However, this relationship often severs during extreme periods when the public markets move like an express train in either direction (up or down) due to rapidly processed information. Private markets move more like a local train, processing information (and incorporating it into valuations) on a quarterly basis. In 2023, fueled by a rally in the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks and boosted by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, the public markets quickly revalued upward, hitting new highs on a regular basis.

By contrast, the private markets continued to incrementally revalue downward from their arguably inflated 2021 highs and remained decoupled from the public markets. Global private equity valuations declined, then leveled out in 2023, but have not improved further. Global venture capital valuations continued their downward trend in 2023, lagging even further behind, as valuation “resets” in venture often happen during subsequent financing exercises, whenever they occur. With the percentage of flat or down rounds nearly doubling in 2023 from levels in the prior two years, many venture-backed companies have tried to delay that “reset” moment for as long as possible by conserving cash. One way to conserve cash is to reduce headcount. In fact, in 2023 there were 18x as many tech layoffs globally than in 2021, a clear indication many companies tried to hit the snooze alarm on raising another round.

It doesn’t help matters that the underperformance relative to publics has occurred during a private markets “distribution drought.” Distributions to limited partners (LPs) have fallen to their second lowest point for global private equity and their lowest point for global venture capital in more than 20 years, based on our distribution yield analysis. 4 Many investors are experiencing the dearth of returned capital from their private investment programs at the same time as program returns are underperforming relative to public markets, raising questions about the value of private investments in a program at all.

The longer the distribution drought continues, the greater the pressure on general partners (GPs) to return capital to LPs, preferably at acceptable levels of return. While that pressure is building, it is worth noting it takes an average of nine and ten years, respectively, for global private equity and global venture capital funds to distribute 1.0x the capital that has been paid in (DPI), which is essentially the same thing as returning cost back to investors. This underscores the time it takes for the private markets to deliver on expectations. The drought will end, but it won’t happen overnight. GPs can’t legally hold on to their investments forever, and delaying exits too long will impact internal rates of return and hinder their ability to raise subsequent funds. One hopeful development in 2024 is the cost and availability of leverage are becoming more favorable, combined with revalued investments, could potentially result in more transaction activity in 2024 and, therefore, more distributions.

Experienced LPs understand private investing is a long-term strategy with performance tracked in years, not days or even months. Zooming out from the one-year return and refocusing on timeframes where private market returns are better expressed, global private equity and venture returns delivered nearly double the equivalent public market performance over three-, five-, and ten-year periods. That said, short-term public market eclipses do occur, so this moment will happen again; over the last 33 years, one-year public market returns have bested global private equity returns nine times and global venture capital returns 14 times. These eclipses can obscure the contributions private investments make to a program. They are only temporary.

 


Andrea Auerbach, Head of Global Private Investments

Footnotes

  1. Cambridge Associates’ mPME calculation is a private-to-public comparison that seeks to replicate private investment performance under public market conditions.
  2. Private fundraising refers to buyout and growth equity funds.
  3. The 2024 fundraising activity is annualized based on data as of March 31, 2024.
  4. Cambridge Associates defines distribution yield as distributions to LPs divided into beginning net asset value.

The post Have Public Market Returns Permanently Eclipsed Private Market Returns? appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
Buyouts Names Andrea Auerbach to Women in PE Class of 2024 https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/en-eu/news/buyouts-names-andrea-auerbach-to-women-in-pe-class-of-2024/ Thu, 21 Mar 2024 17:40:53 +0000 https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/news/buyouts-names-andrea-auerbach-to-women-in-pe-class-of-2024/ We’re proud to share that Buyouts has included Andrea Auerbach, Head of Global Private Investments, in its annual Women in PE awards. The publication describes her as “one of the most influential LP advisors in the business.” As one of the earliest proponents of private investing, Cambridge Associates has been partnering with sophisticated institutional and […]

The post Buyouts Names Andrea Auerbach to Women in PE Class of 2024 appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
We’re proud to share that Buyouts has included Andrea Auerbach, Head of Global Private Investments, in its annual Women in PE awards. The publication describes her as “one of the most influential LP advisors in the business.”

As one of the earliest proponents of private investing, Cambridge Associates has been partnering with sophisticated institutional and family investors to shape the global private investment landscape for 50 years.

Read the full profile here. 

Footnotes

  1. Cambridge Associates’ mPME calculation is a private-to-public comparison that seeks to replicate private investment performance under public market conditions.
  2. Private fundraising refers to buyout and growth equity funds.
  3. The 2024 fundraising activity is annualized based on data as of March 31, 2024.
  4. Cambridge Associates defines distribution yield as distributions to LPs divided into beginning net asset value.

The post Buyouts Names Andrea Auerbach to Women in PE Class of 2024 appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
Podcast: How Endowments and Foundations Can Maximize Market Volatility https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/en-eu/news/podcast-how-endowments-and-foundations-can-maximize-market-volatility/ Mon, 05 Feb 2024 23:49:01 +0000 https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/news/podcast-how-endowments-and-foundations-can-maximize-market-volatility/ Endowments and foundations are some of the most consistent investors in private equity, and they often have some of the highest allocations to the asset class. In this episode of PEI’s Spotlight podcast, Managing Director Jill Shaw shares what advice she is giving her clients when it comes to private markets portfolio construction and which […]

The post Podcast: How Endowments and Foundations Can Maximize Market Volatility appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>
Endowments and foundations are some of the most consistent investors in private equity, and they often have some of the highest allocations to the asset class. In this episode of PEI’s Spotlight podcast, Managing Director Jill Shaw shares what advice she is giving her clients when it comes to private markets portfolio construction and which investment strategies are most attractive.

Listen to the episode. 

Footnotes

  1. Cambridge Associates’ mPME calculation is a private-to-public comparison that seeks to replicate private investment performance under public market conditions.
  2. Private fundraising refers to buyout and growth equity funds.
  3. The 2024 fundraising activity is annualized based on data as of March 31, 2024.
  4. Cambridge Associates defines distribution yield as distributions to LPs divided into beginning net asset value.

The post Podcast: How Endowments and Foundations Can Maximize Market Volatility appeared first on Cambridge Associates.

]]>